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家家有譜 發表于2024-08-07 10:29:00
終極股息投資5-4：股息增長與通貨膨脹的歷史-英文

繼續整理學習美國投資書《終極股息投資攻略》第5章，作者來自美國基金評級公司晨星(Morningstar)。


Inflation

In the big picture, there's more to dividend growth than just reinvested earnings; inflation also plays a role. When inflation rises, many corporations can raise prices faster; when these price hikes match or exceed any increases in operating costs, profits and cash flow will rise faster as well. It's a basic part of the economic backdrop whose influence is felt everywhere.
It turns out that past rates of dividend growth around 6 percent have benefited from a faster pace of inflation than we're currently experiencing. In fact, since inflation has averaged 3.8 percent annually since 1947, more than half of the historical rate of nominal dividend growth has been lost to inflation. Real dividend growth--that which marks genuine gains in the purchasing power of the market's dividend stream--has run at a rate of just 2.4 percent. (See Figure 5.6.)

This is one of the dirty little secrets of dividends, at least for the market as a whole: They don't always keep pace with inflation. Although Figure 5.4 shows a relatively steady uptrend in nominal dollars, the S&P 500's inflation-adjusted dividend rate is much less compelling. (See Figure 5.7.) Instead of rising from $0.68 to $25.35 between 1947 and 2006, the value of the S&P 500's dividend stream in 1947 dollars is just $2.69--roughly one-tenth of the nominal figure. (And as if to add injury to insult, the real dividend rate of the S&P hit a peak in 1966 that wasn't surpassed until 1989--a 33-year drought!)

A better use of the past, in this case, is to add the historical rates of real dividend growth (2.4 percent) to the current level of inflation (about 2 percent). If we take our cue solely from the past, a 4.5 percent rate of dividend growth is about all we should expect.

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