繼續整理學習美國投資書《終極股息投資攻略》第5章，作者來自美國基金評級公司晨星(Morningstar)。
The Bottom Line
Let's sum up where our projection for dividend growth lies:> Historically, dividend growth for the market as a whole has run at 6 percent annually.> If we look at the pace of real dividend growth--roughly 2.5 percent--and add the current rate of inflation (2 percent), this backward-looking indication falls to 4.5 percent.> If we give the market credit for low payout ratios and rising returns on equity, knowing that a lot of the earnings not being distributed as dividends are going toward growth-boosting share buybacks, we can lift our dividend forecast by 2 or 3 percentage points--bringing our estimate up to about 7 percent.> If we further assume that corporate profits as a percentage of national income are unsustainably high, we can easily knock a final percentage point off our forecast.
Considering all of these moving parts, I figure dividend growth is likely to run at 5 to 7 percent in the years ahead. Throw in the dividend yield of about 2 percent, and I've got my forecast: 8 percent total returns from stocks, give or take a point.Some professional investors, mostly of a preternaturally bearish mind-set, look at these dynamics and cringe. They believe stocks aren't worth owning unless the investor can get a 10 percent return. Since the growth term isn't likely to change, that leaves dividend yield as the critical variable: The dividend yield of the market should not be 2 percent, but 4 percent. To achieve this yield, current prices would have to be significantly lower. I suppose if the S&P 500 plunged 50 percent and nothing else changed, I, too, would be comfortable expecting 10 percent annual returns from stocks.Yet I don't agree with the conclusion that stocks are overvalued. An 8 percent return from stocks seems entirely reasonable, given the low rate of inflation and the lack of attractive fixed-income alternatives. Instead, I believe the great masses of America's shareholding class should curb their enthusiasm and expect to be satisfied with less.For the investor who wants to stick with stock mutual funds tied to the S&P 500, the implications of this forecast are obvious: Spend less and save more. On the other hand, it's not necessary to own the entire market, or to tie one's goals solely to what the market is capable of providing. By definition, half of all stocks will underperform the market, while the other half will do better. Dividends are the single best tool I know of for separating the stocks capable of beating this 7 to 9 percent prospect for the market as a whole.That's what this book's central analytical tool--an approach I've termed the Dividend Drill--is all about.
Chapter 5: Rules and Plays> Dividend yields for the market in general are a lot lower than they used to be--a fact that bodes ill for future total returns.
> Dividend growth prospects--even after considering recent changes to corporate dividend policies, profitability, and inflation trends--don't look to run much better than 5 to 7 percent annually in the years and decades to come.
> Investors should not expect more than 7 to 9 percent annual returns for the stock market as a whole. Fortunately, you don't have to own the whole market: Dividend insights can reveal those stocks that are poised to generate better-than-average returns.
